Warning Signs Of Depression And Suicide, Teenagers *don't* think "it will never happen to them"
There's been a factoid floating around our society, at least since I was a
teenager, that teens' risky behaviors result from a belief that they are
invincible and individually immune from the risks. I've always felt
dissatisfied with this claim, as it does not seem to accord with what I've
ever heard from teenagers who choose to take the risks.
Does this article also address the disturbing trend of teens killing
themselves in increasing numbers each year? If you ever want a sobering
experience, go to www.1000deaths.com and see just how many teens are
killing themselves; it's rather harrowing to see photos of 12yo's among
the bunch.
Soapbox time: Any parent who has a depressed teenager should do some
serious research into teen suicide. I'm becoming an unfortunate expert
due to my dear friend taking his life two months ago. Every parent should
be educated in the warning signs of suicide along with how to give the
proper support. There's much to learn and you don't want to end up like
me: having all this information now that it is too late.
No, although the full, published paper may. Suicide now accounts for about
15% of that death rate and certainly would provide some basis for extremes
in estimation of probability of death. A teen intending suicide might
estimate high, even if in fact his chances of a "successful" attempt are
smaller.
I do see from the various sources that the recorded suicide rates have
roughly tripled over the last two generations--too much to be dismissed as
reporting difference. But have the rates begun coming back down the last
few years, in parallel with other juvenile violence rates?
That could perhaps be tested in follow-on research, but I doubt it would
turn out to be a model with much explanatory power. Depression and
suicidal-ness could account for only a small part of what these studies
find. I.E. if there really is a class of teenagers who have a 50% chance of
committing suicide in the following year, they could constitute only .024%
of their age-group, with the balance of their population having 0% chance
of suiciding. Put another way, assuming the ~3,500 subjects of that study
were selected randomly, chances are ([1-.00012]^3500=66%) that none of them
will actually commit suicide in the next year. Even given the low "success"
rates of teen attempts, I don't think those numbers are going to go very
far. Put yet another way, even if we define "suicidal" as "having a 1%
chance of actually committing suicide in the next year", it covers only
about 1% of the members of a random sample of teens. Further expanding the
definition of "suicide" to include "all teenage deaths, whatever the
cause", we still get less than 10% of the group.